There would be no need to discuss plans if we all knew exactly how the future will unfold. We would simply embrace the future and determine how best to meet our organization's needs — roads forward would be apparent, and deviations would become options rather than mandates.
Unfortunately, despite what many futurists and forecasters say about the predictability of trends, such declarations, which are frequently given with great authority, lack context. Trends rely on social, political, economic, environmental, and technical assumptions that people who dogmatize trends frequently fail to describe. If the underlying assumptions alter, the trend may derail, leaving its adherents reacting to change rather than guiding it.
As much as we would want to believe that trends will enlighten and assist us in making better judgments, the only way to truly enhance decision-making is to embrace uncertainty and cope with the world's underlying complexity. Scenario planning is the finest discipline for this type of job.
Scenario planning is a common component of strategic planning. It is traditionally associated with company strategy and finance. However, given the changing nature of work, we believe HR must become a more active participant in the process, with a particular emphasis on skills-based workforce planning.
HR may use scenario planning to inform the redesign of HR models and procedures, collaborate with business executives to develop more robust people-inclusive scenarios, and develop skills-based workforce talent initiatives.
Creating tales is only the first big step in the process, and it is the one that is least linked with day-to-day work. Consultants guide teams through implications exercises at the end of the workshops to investigate the influence of these possible futures on roles, plans, processes, relationships, and structures.
Scenarios eventually lead to deeper HR implications, such as: By 2030, learning must be offered in a completely different way. We must be prepared to combine the various employment models so that skills and performance satisfy our requirements. As more and more machines replace workers, we must plan for transitions. Each situation has its own set of ramifications that indicate what has to be done.
The real work begins when current plans are revisited to make them more flexible and adaptive in light of the consequences — and of change in general, given that the organisation acknowledges, and perhaps even challenges, the assumptions that underpin them.
Some businesses develop contingency plans, while others develop early warning systems that monitor uncertainty in order to better predict change. As evidence of disruption increases, companies should revise their strategies to better handle the emerging reality.
Even if a business does not use scenario planning intentionally, the discipline may nevertheless benefit the HR function. Many organisations envision and work toward ideal futures. Believing that these ideals are achievable eliminates ambiguity. Organizations lose peripheral vision when they focus solely on a certain future. This makes them more exposed to irrelevant occurrences since they are just not paying attention.
A list of uncertainties displayed on an office door or cubicle wall serves as a reminder that even today's job may change in relevance due to variables beyond our personal, corporate, or even governmental control.
The Role of Human Resources in Scenario Planning
- Once scenarios are in place, HR is frequently delegated to an implementation partner. However, we believe that Human Resources can add considerable value to the original scenario generation process by offering organisational design and workforce planning skills.Including these views early in the process enables for more realistic and robust scenarios to be created. It also brings a more diverse viewpoint from across several divisions to the table.
> The following should be prioritised:
Create capability maps for each scenario
Using a skills-based taxonomy to define the skill needs, and
Investigating prospective talent and development solutions to bridge skill gaps.
- The second opportunity we feel HR can seize is to rethink current HR practises using the scenario planning methodology described in this article. HR may utilise this approach to add new ideas into the service offering, making it more relevant and useful. The same ideas would apply, and HR would need to construct particular scenarios using data and proof.
- The final opportunity we see is for HR to use the same scenario planning techniques to establish what the HR function may look like depending on the chosen scenarios.
- HR has the chance to design a response suited to each of the described situations by utilising the strategic decisions provided as part of the larger business process. At a high level, this exercise might highlight, in a similar way, the competencies that HR has to develop in order to appropriately respond to each situation, as well as the necessary methodology.
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